“The Fix” by Chris Cillizza is starting to keep track of the most competitive races of week. Check it out: Here is a preview of what they are doing.
Remember the #1 ranked race is the most likely to switch parties, and your comments are welcome below.
To the Line!
20. Pennsylvania’s 7th District: Rep. Curt Weldon (R) needs to remember two names: George Gekas and Phil Crane. Both were Republican congressmen who hadn’t had a real race in years and when faced with strong challengers were unable to restart their political operation. And, Weldon currently represents a district much more favorable to Democrats (Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry won 53 percent there in 2004) than those of Gekas and Crane. But Republican insiders insist Weldon understands he’s in trouble and that he is campaigning hard. Still with retired Rear Admiral Joe Sestak’s strong fundraising — $994,000 on hand at the end of June — this is a race to watch. (Previous ranking: 17)
19. Iowa’s 3rd District: This district has the ignominious distinction of being the lone Democratic-held seat on this month’s Line. Yes, we know the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently halved their planned independent expenditure on behalf of Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) (figuring he will need less help), but this race still intrigues us. State Sen. Jeff Lamberti (R) has largely focused on raising cash to date, a strategy that has paid off in the amount of $775,000. Boswell seems to have recovered from the health problems that plagued him earlier in the cycle, but even Democrats acknowledge Lamberti is the best candidate the incumbent has ever faced. In a neutral year, Boswell might be in worse trouble. (Previous ranking: 12)
18. Virginia’s 2nd District: This race was on no one’s radar screen at the start of the cycle. But Rep. Thelma Drake (R) has struggled to build on her 2004 victory, and Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue Phil Kellam (D) has gained some traction for his change message. Drake is an unapologetic supporter of the war in Iraq and rejected the idea of adopting a timeline for withdrawal. Kellam has been more difficult to pin down — he supported invading Iraq but has described the current state of affairs as a “mess.” The question is which viewpoint will win support in a district that boasts one of the largest military populations in the country. (Previous ranking: 19)
17. Connecticut’s 4th District: This race slides down the Line as we hear that Rep. Chris Shays’ (R) favorable ratings are extremely healthy — making it difficult for 2004 nominee Dianne Farrell to peel away the necessary votes to defeat the incumbent. Shays, who recently made his 14th trip to Iraq and proclaims that he understands the situation there better than any other member of Congress, is expected to lay out a plan for a withdrawal timeline next month. After years of support for the war, will voters see this as a flip flop on Shays’ part? Or will the move win him support among war opponents who will give him credit for searching for solutions? (Previous ranking: 9)
16. Ohio’s 18th District: A month has been like an eternity in this district. Rep. Bob Ney (R) bowed to the inevitable by announcing his retirement, and a special election to choose the replacement Republican nominee is set for Sept. 14. State Sen. Joy Padgett (R) should win the primary, but Democrats believe the fact that she called herself Ney’s handpicked candidate could give them an opening in the fall. Attorney Zack Space (D) is a passable candidate, but if the race is not about Ney it will be hard for him to win in a seat in a district that President Bush won by 14 points. (Previous ranking: 4)
15. Connecticut’s 5th District: Given her demonstrated fundraising ability ($2.6 million on hand at the end of June) and her longevity in Congress (24 years), Nancy Johnson (R) isn’t an obvious target. But, Republican insiders say that MoveOn.org’s “red handed” commercials that ran earlier this cycle did damage to Johnson’s image. Plus, state Sen. Chris Murphy (D) is running an extremely active campaign with $1 million in the bank. The district is extremely competitive (Kerry won it by 1,100 votes in 2004) and if voters are looking for a fresh face Johnson could be in trouble. (Previous ranking: N/A)
14. Ohio’s 15th District: Since coming to Congress in 1992, Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) has never won re-election with less than 60 percent of the vote. But, her district has grown increasingly more competitive in statewide races. In 2000 Bush won the district by 8 percentage points; four years later he won it by just 2,000 votes. Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) has a base in the district and has raised a creditable amount of money, though Republicans insist they have a thick book of opposition research that will make her life difficult. (Previous ranking: N/A)
13. Kentucky’s 4th District: Having just returned from this northern Kentucky district, we are at a loss to predict who will win this fall. Former Rep. Ken Lucas (D) still carries considerable name recognition from his six years in Congress (1998-2004) and is the right ideological fit (anti-abortion rights, pro-Second Amendment) for the seat. But Lucas won the seat against a less than stellar opponent in 1998 and nearly lost to current incumbent Rep. Geoff Davis in 2002, despite the fact that national Republicans barely spent a dime in the district. Davis (R) has outdistanced Lucas in fundraising and is touting his ability to bring home pork to the district. This is certainly a Democratic opportunity, but far from a slam dunk. (Previous ranking: 13)
12. Indiana’s 9th District: Republicans are feeling better and better about Rep. Mike Sodrel’s (R) chances to win another term against former Rep. Baron Hill (D). They believe the attacks they used to defeat Hill two years ago remain potent, and Sodrel is better financed this time around. We are wary. The combination of President Bush’s dismal approval rating and the ongoing struggles of Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) is creating a VERY hostile environment for Republicans in the state. Sodrel may be in better shape than his colleagues in the 2nd and 8th districts, but he is far from out of the woods. (Previous ranking: 6)
11. Connecticut’s 2nd District: There are two ways of thinking about this race. If voters in this eastern Connecticut district see their vote as an expression of dissatisfaction with President Bush and the war in Iraq, then Rep. Rob Simmons (R) is in serious trouble. If, however, the main motivating factors for voters are more local in scope — like Simmons’ help in saving the Groton submarine base from closure — then the incumbent could pull it out. Republicans note that Simmons already beat Democratic nominee Joe Courtney soundly in 2002, but the environment has changed drastically since then. (Previous ranking: 7)
10. Florida’s 22nd District: The battle lines are drawn. Rep. Clay Shaw (R) is painting himself as an independent voice for the district and attacking state Sen. Ron Klein (D) for his ties to the sugar industry. Klein, in turn, calls Shaw a loyal foot soldier for President Bush and labels himself a voice for change. Both candidates have raised stunning amounts of money and the bashing should continue unabated through election day. It’s tough to tell how the top of the ticket will impact this race. Republicans are favored to hold the governorship, but Rep. Katherine Harris’ ill-fated Senate bid could counteract any positive trickle-down effect for GOPers. (Previous ranking:
9. New Mexico’s 1st District: Democrats admit that Rep. Heather Wilson (R) effectively scored points over the past month by hitting state Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D) over her failure to investigate former state Treasurer Robert Vigil. Madrid may have finally changed the subject with a stirring ad that attacks Wilson for never raising questions about the war in Iraq and missing a vote on setting a timetable for withdrawal to attend a fundraiser with President Bush. Wilson is as savvy as they come, but her district is split absolutely down the middle — meaning even a slight wind could push her out of office. (Previous ranking: 11)
8. North Carolina’s 11th District: This race keeps moving up the Line. Former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler (D) has proven to be a solid candidate, although we have been led to believe that his business career after football could be easily mined for negative television ads. On the other hand, Rep. Charles Taylor (R) has never run particularly professional campaigns, and national Republicans worry that he may not be ready for the onslaught that is sure to come. One ace in the hole for Taylor is the state’s Republican lean; Bush won by 14 points in 2004. (Previous ranking: 14)
7. Pennsylvania’s 6th District: While Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) remains among the most endangered incumbents in the country, both sides believe this race will be decided by a few thousand votes. Democratic challenger Lois Murphy, the party’s nominee in 2004, has run a superb campaign to date and will benefit from the Philadelphia voter turnout machines of Gov. Ed Rendell (D) and state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D). A recent poll for Murphy showed her ahead 42 percent to 41 percent. That sounds about right to us. (Previous ranking: 5)
6. Indiana’s 2nd District: No race has collapsed quicker for Republicans than this one, where Rep. Chris Chocola (R) finds himself in very serious trouble against 2004 Democratic nominee Joe Donnelly. The root of the incumbent’s problems appears to be the unpopularity of the president and governor, but Chocola seems to have also taken his re-election for granted — a cardinal sin for a Republican in this type of environment. Can Chocola come back? Republican strategists are very skeptical. (Previous ranking: N/A)
5. Indiana’s 8th District: We’ve been hesitant to write off Rep. John Hostettler (R) because he has shown a past ability to run and win without raising much money or hiring professional political consultants. However, not many Republican insiders hold out hope for Hostettler this time around. Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth is a good ideological fit for this conservative district and polling shows him with a comfortable lead. Is that the fat lady we hear singing? (Previous ranking: 10)
4. Arizona’s 8th District: The math in this southern Arizona district is simple. If conservative ex-state Rep. Randy Graf wins the Republican primary on Sept. 12, Democrats will almost certainly win this seat. If moderate state Rep. Steve Huffman is the GOP nominee, the road to victory for Democrats is much bumpier. Graf has to be considered the favorite in the primary (he remains the best known candidate due to his primary challenge to Rep. Jim Kolbe (R) in 2004), so this seat keeps its high ranking on the Line. Former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords is the likely Democratic nominee. (Previous ranking: 3)
3. Texas’ 22nd District: Former Rep. Tom DeLay (R) isn’t as smart as we thought he was. Although DeLay resigned from office and moved his official residence to Virginia, the courts refused to allow him to be replaced on the November ballot — meaning that Republicans must run a write-in campaign. Their chosen nominee? Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. Not exactly the easiest name for a voter to remember and write-in. Former Rep. Nick Lampson (D) is sitting on $2.2 million and, despite the strong Republican lean of the district, he should be considered a favorite this fall. (Previous ranking: N/A)
2. Iowa’s 1st District: Neither attorney Bruce Braley (D) nor businessman Mike Whalen (R) will bowl voters over with their candidate skills, but both national parties are already engaged in this race and their spending is sure to overwhelm that of the candidates. This eastern Iowa district clearly favors Democrats (Kerry carried it by seven points in 2004) and may be ready to return to type after supporting Rep. Jim Nussle (R) for the past 16 years. Whalen has a chance, but it is a slim one. (Previous ranking: 1)
1. Colorado’s 7th District: Former state Sen. Ed Perlmutter’s victory in the Democratic primary earlier this month makes Republican nominee Rick O’Donnell’s strategy even more complicated. Republicans were privately hoping former state Rep. Peggy Lamm would be the Democratic nominee because she was to Perlmutter’s ideological left and would have given O’Donnell a chance to co-opt moderate voters. Perlmutter is not easily stereotyped as a liberal, and this suburban Denver district grows more Democratic by the day. (Previous ranking: 1)